The Effect of Expectations

The main idea of this chapter of Predictably Irrational, The Effect of Expectations, is that expectations, previous experiences, and prior knowledge about a product or service can affect the way we perceive it, both physically and psychologically. In short, having positive feelings about a product can make it seem “better” upon trial, while having a negative attitude toward it prior to trial can make it “worse”. I find it amazing how such a simple and seemingly obvious observation can tell us so much about the ways customers behave.

One expectation mentioned in the chapter was presentation; coffees presented on stainless steel platters with condiments in nice containers were perceived and rated better than the same coffee in styrofoam cups. This insight about presentation and its effect on perceived value has helped Starbucks become the company it is today. Another expectation discussed was prior experiences; neuroscientists measured brain activity during blind and sighted taste tests of Coke vs. Pepsi. Blind taste tests show similar brain activity when trying each brand of cola, but in sighted tests Coke evoked higher activity in sections of the brain responsible for memory and associations. Having prior experiences and memories of Coke caused the person in the taste test to perceive greater taste. This insight shows us as marketers the power and value of branding.

The main example discussed in the chapter was a study performed at a pub on the MIT campus. Patrons were asked to sample two beers: Budweiser and “MIT Brew”, which was Budweiser with drops of balsamic vinegar added. The experiment was to see if knowledge of the “secret ingredient” changed the patron’s expectations, and thus perception, of the beer before or after they drank it. It’s funny that just a week prior to reading this chapter, my friend and I had a similar discussion about the effect of product knowledge on perception and evaluation.

Last week, my friend’s family was in town and she decided to show them how well she had learned to cook while away from home. The look on her parent’s face obviously showed that they weren’t at all confident with her cooking abilities, with due justice. When I met my friend over 3 years ago, she was terrible at cooking, but through trial and error, experimenting, and a few pounds of wasted food, she learned how to make a few dishes pretty well. Before she started, she asked me not to mention to her family that she had been practicing cooking so they would be surprised. Similar to the MIT beer experiment, knowledge of my friend’s cooking skills (or in this case the lack of knowledge) helped shape her parent’s expectations toward the food. In the end, they agreed that her cooking had gotten considerably better.

After reading this chapter, however, I think back to that meal. I wonder if the parent’s perception of the food would have been greater if I had raved about how great a cook she had become before they ate the meal. If the results of the MIT experiment are accurate, the knowledge of her improved cooking skills would lead to greater expectations of the meal and in turn a higher perception of its taste.